It is no secret that there is a big gap between the perception of the same events in the public opinion in Armenia, Russia and the Armenian Diaspora. Below is the opinion of one of the leading political scientists in Russia, which may cause an ambiguous reaction. On the other hand, it is possible that such harsh (according to the author, unpleasant) forecasts may be will help and accelerate Armenians to consolidate and develop a wise strategy and agenda in a rapidly changing world. The public organization “Khachmeruk” (Crossroads) regularly holds online discussions on important topics.
Below is a publication in Facebook (Jan 12, 2021) by Dmitry Evstafiev (son of lieutenant general Gennady Evstafiev), a professor, Russian political scientist-Americanist, an expert on military-political issues of Russian national security, US military and foreign policy, and regional problems of nuclear non-proliferation. A non-official translation from Russian by “Khachmeruk” (Crossroads).
“I did not want to speak out about the negotiations on Nagorno-Karabakh. But after reading various comments, I nevertheless decided to say a few unpleasant things. There will be no “Great Armenia”, Armenia “from sea to sea”, from Los Angeles to Beirut. Not because of Pashinyan. Pashinyan is just a symptom, that the nation was burned out from within. That this nation cannot and does not want to bear the burden of greatness. The nation, the people of warriors and victors are tired. And from this follow two possibilities for the further existence of Armenia and the people of Armenia. At least for the next 20 years. Both, I’m afraid, will not be liked.
Option one. Armenia, small Armenia, becomes an ethnographic province of “big Russia”. Like Kaliningrad region (is an enclave in the West of Russia, has no border with other regions of Russsia), but with better logistics conditions. And it borders on multi-vector, and perhaps even neutral Azerbaijan.
Option two. Armenia, very small, becomes an ethnographic governorate in the Baku vilayet of the Ottoman Empire.
All other options, concepts and other dreams are from the evil one. The choice is really simple. Moreover, the choice even just doesn’t exist at all.
But in order to make a sighted, smart choice, you need to calm down, sit down and look around you. And to understand that the inclusion of Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh in the “North-South” corridor under the military and economic guarantees of Russia is the salvation of Armenia and the Armenian people. The transformation of an economically degrading enclave into a critical and protected space. Able, at least, to support itself socially and economically.
If the Armenian people, not Pashinyan, but the Armenian people, cannot understand the significance of this choice, then Russia and we, the Russian society, including the Russian Armenians, who are now terribly hurt, will not be able to do anything.
The new world… It’s cruel. It sweeps away all illusions. You have to learn to live in it.”
This information in other resources:
- “Armenian community in Russia” group in Facebook
- “Ararat Armenian Forum” group in Facebook
- in Telegram
- in Twitter